Alpha Observatory

Stage analysis

Chapter 07 · 2 min

The Stock Funnel Cheatsheet

In this lessonKeep the questions close for the moments when excitement makes them easy to forget.

Most mistakes do not happen because we have never heard the right rule. They happen because the rule disappears at the exact moment a stock becomes exciting. This page is the version to keep nearby when you need the method without the full explanation.

Do not treat every item as a box that must be checked. Treat the sequence as a brake on storytelling: each step forces the idea to survive a different kind of question.

1 · Discovery

Why is this stock on the list?

An unusually large daily gain or expanding demand earns attention—it does not earn a buy decision.

2 · Price structure

Did price leave a real range?

Identify the base, resistance level, breakout volume, closing strength, and whether the old boundary became support.

3 · Explanation

What changed?

Look for a specific, timely catalyst that could reasonably change expectations for revenue, earnings, risk, or future value.

4 · Confirmation

Does the evidence support the move?

Check liquidity, persistent demand, business growth, ownership, valuation, cash generation, and analyst context.

5 · Risk

What can invalidate the thesis?

Name the level, event, or evidence that would prove the original explanation wrong. Include dilution, volatility, and low-float risks.

6 · Decision

What happens next?

Research further, wait for confirmation, or reject the setup. A strong move is allowed to end with no action.

Fast warning signs

  • × No identifiable catalyst
  • × Weak close after an intraday spike
  • × Price falls back below resistance
  • × Low dollar volume or poor liquidity
  • × Low float or recent dilution
  • × Valuation unsupported by growth
  • × Demand disappears after day one
  • × No clear invalidation point
The goal is not to find a reason to buy. The goal is to reach a decision the evidence can support.
Use the cheatsheet on Daily Gainers

For educational and research purposes only. No score or classification guarantees future performance.