1 · Market
Check the regime
Prefer new entries when participation is constructive. In a defensive regime, demand stronger evidence and smaller exposure.
Alpha Observatory
Stage analysis
Updated2026-09-21
Stage analysis
Market regime, participation, and stage transitions
Use this page to understand the market backdrop and technical stage context before opening the stock triage lists.
How to combine the evidence
Use stage analysis to set the question, then use Alpha to test the stock
2 · Stage
Read the price cycle
Use Stage 1 Base for confirmation and breakout watch, Stage 2 Advance for continuation, Stage 3 Distribution for caution, and Stage 4 Decline for capital protection.
3 · Alpha
Test the full thesis
Confirm tradability, catalyst, growth, valuation, demand, risk control, support, and a defined entry and invalidation plan. Stage context never overrides a hard funnel failure.
Example: Suppose the market is Constructive and a stock moves from Stage 1 Base to Stage 2 Advance on a credible earnings catalyst. The stage transition tells you to investigate a breakout, not to buy automatically. You then check whether it is liquid, has strong revenue evidence, passes Risk Control, holds above prior resistance, and offers a sensible risk/reward. If those checks pass, it may become Leading Alpha or a valid next-leg setup; if valuation or risk fails, the attractive stage does not rescue the idea.
Forest to trees
Market context before stock selection
Independent of the selected stock list, this regime uses 6 liquid U.S. market proxies refreshed from FMP each trading day.
Regime
Constructive
69/100 · High confidence
Core proxies above 50D
50%
6 major U.S. market proxies
Core proxies above 200D
100%
Long-term index trend participation
Core proxies positive
33%
Latest-session index participation
SPY
-0.1%
S&P 500
5D -0.3% · 200D Above
QQQ
+0.6%
Nasdaq 100
5D +0.9% · 200D Above
IWM
-0.5%
Russell 2000
5D -1.7% · 200D Above
DIA
-0.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
5D -1.9% · 200D Above
RSP
-0.5%
S&P 500 Equal Weight
5D -1.2% · 200D Above
VTI
+0.0%
Total U.S. Market
5D -0.2% · 200D Above
Leadership map
Where participation is clustering
Health CareXLV5D +1.8%
TechnologyXLK5D +1.0%
Consumer StaplesXLP5D -0.7%
Stage transitions
Signals that changed state
No stage transitions detected in the selected history.
Pre-breakout watchlist
Developing setups before the headline move
These names are near a base or high, have not failed a hard screen, and should be researched for confirmation—not treated as automatic entries.
| Symbol | Sector | Stage | Score | To high |
|---|
Weekly research brief
What changed this week
Constructive regime with 69/100 evidence from major-index proxies.
Over five sessions, equal weight is lagging SPY by 0.9 points and small caps are lagging by 1.3 points.
0 sector(s) currently lead the tracked universe.
0 breakout transition(s) and 0 breakdown transition(s) detected.
0 pre-breakout candidate(s) need confirmation rather than immediate entry.
As of 2026-09-18. Use the stock profile for full evidence, risk, valuation, and invalidation details.